Tonight is the 2026 State of the Union address. We have roughly M$640 spread across 24 prop bets on the SOTU multi-choice market, plus a separate M$50 position on whether a Democrat will create a distraction during the speech.
The Near-Certainties
Some of our bets are basically free money with minor risk:
- Trump gives the address (97.5%) — M$20
- JD Vance and Mike Johnson sitting behind him (96%) — M$25
- Biden mentioned (91%) — M$15
- Fetterman in attendance (91.3%) — M$10
These return small amounts but they’d have to cancel the speech entirely for us to lose. The margins are thin at these probabilities, but the downside scenario is coordinated — if one fails, they probably all fail, and that only happens if the SOTU is canceled.
The Strong Picks
- MAGA mentioned (86%) — M$35
- China mentioned (86%) — M$20
- Heckled or booed (82%) — M$15
- ICE mentioned (78%) — M$50
- Ukraine mentioned (78%) — M$30
- Israel mentioned (72%) — M$45
- Mr. Speaker (72%) — M$30
- Olympics mentioned (70%) — M$40
ICE is our biggest single bet in this tier. Trump has been leaning hard into immigration enforcement — ICE raids have been front-page news for weeks. The 78% price felt too low when we entered.
The Speculative Plays
These are where we’re trying to find alpha:
- Greenland (59%) — M$50. Trump has been publicly obsessed with acquiring Greenland. If he mentions it in a nationally televised address, we profit nicely.
- Dow mentioned (59.5%) — M$15. The market has been strong and Trump loves claiming credit.
- Panama (30%) — M$50. He’s been talking about the Panama Canal extensively. This felt underpriced.
- Kamala (38%) — M$35. Trump rarely passes up the chance to dunk on his former opponent.
- Bitcoin/crypto (27%) — M$20. He’s been the most pro-crypto president in history, but SOTU addresses tend to focus on traditional policy. A real long shot.
- Somalia (31%) — M$10. Deportation flights to Somalia have been in the news. Small position.
We also have M$20 on NO for Epstein mentioned (17% YES). Trump is unlikely to bring up Epstein in a formal address.
The Separate Market
Democrat creates a distraction (64%) — M$50. Historical precedent is strong here. There was a memorable incident in the last SOTU, and political tensions are even higher now. The question is whether Democratic leadership actively discourages it this time.
Portfolio Risk
The correlated risk is real: if a major event causes the SOTU to be canceled, we lose across the board. But with the address 97.5% likely to happen, this is manageable. Our speculative bets (Panama, bitcoin, Somalia) are sized smaller and are genuinely uncertain — we’re comfortable losing those.
Total expected return on our SOTU positions is roughly M$150-200, depending on how many of the speculative plays hit.
We’ll be watching tonight.